Thompson a wild card for GOP

Arizona Republic

Americans are used to Fred Thompson showing up late.

Regular viewers of the NBC crime drama Law & Order know that Thompson, in the role of District Attorney Arthur Branch, usually didn't make an appearance until well into the hourlong program.

Now Thompson, an actor, former senator, Watergate committee lawyer, radio commentator and lobbyist, is readying a late entry into his life's highest-profile episode, the 2008 presidential race.

As an "unofficial" candidate, Thompson is performing well, posting second-place finishes in many state and national polls. His announcement would further disrupt the dynamics of the Republican race, but political analysts disagree on which of his rivals has the most to lose from his full-blown competition.

Even the candidates are unsure about the Thompson effect.

Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., whom Thompson regularly tops in the polls, was asked recently whether a Thompson candidacy would help or hurt.

"I don't know," McCain said flatly.

When Thompson makes his long-anticipated splash into the race, he will face a field of contenders that so far has failed to enthrall Republican base voters, meaning he still has at least as much of a chance of winning them over as the other leading candidates.

Thompson, characterized by his down-home Tennessee drawl, has taken his time getting into the race. He formed a committee to gauge support for a White House bid and initially signaled that he likely would announce in July. Thursday is now the date of his official announcement, which he is expected to make via an online video.

A growing number of political observers say that Thompson's hesitation has damaged his chances and they doubt that he can live up to his early hype, which included frequent comparisons to the late President Ronald Reagan, the nation's most successful actor-politician and an icon to conservatives.

"When you're not a candidate, everybody gets to pour their hopes and dreams into you," said Jon McHenry, a Republican pollster based in Alexandria, Va. "Once you've announced, that's a lot to live up to. When you are built up as the next Reagan, it's hard to live up to."

GOP race still fluid

In recent national polls, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is the steady GOP front-runner, but Thompson is the clear second choice, despite not having formally announced. McCain, who once rode high in the polls, has slipped to where he now typically dips below former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is working hard to leverage his second-place finish in last month's Ames, Iowa, straw poll into top-tier status. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich remains a possible candidate, too.

Who would lose support to Thompson? Some political experts say Giuliani, who holds liberal views on abortion rights and other key issues that they predict will ultimately unravel his GOP front-runner status. Others say McCain or Romney, who are pursuing the same conservatives whom Thompson hopes to win.

Romney officials wouldn't speculate on how Thompson may shake up the Republican contest.

"He's seen his TV show," Josh Romney, 32, said recently in Phoenix when asked about his father's relationship with Thompson. "I think that's about as far as it goes. I don't think they've ever met."

Lazy or deliberative?

Early on, Thompson fans had high hopes that his Southern-style federalism might unite and energize unenthusiastic conservatives, but his prolonged testing of the political waters has fueled perceptions of Thompson as a lackadaisical personality who lacks the drive and stomach for a grueling presidential campaign.

Critics call his 1994 to 2003 Senate tenure undistinguished, and some have gone so far as to label Thompson lazy. Bloggers had a field day last month after Thompson, who turned 65 on Aug. 19, toured the Iowa State Fair in a golf cart while sporting Gucci loafers. Even McCain, who turned 71 on Wednesday, worked the fair on foot despite punishing 90-plus degree heat and high humidity.

"I'm kind of a slow-moving, slow-talking kind of guy a lot of times," Thompson said earlier this year on the Fox News Channel. "I enjoy life. I enjoy a good laugh. The only two elections I've ever run, I've won."

One longtime Thompson watcher predicts that he will quickly vanquish his relaxed image once he declares his candidacy. He warned that Thompson's rivals will underestimate the Tennessean at their own risk.

"This delay will fuel people's concerns about his work ethic until the day he announces, and then the issue is gone," said John Geer, a political-science professor at Vanderbilt University in Nashville who follows Thompson's career closely. "The more relevant question isn't whether he is dedicated, because I actually think he's a very hard worker. He's just not somebody who has wanted to be president his entire life, so he hasn't advertised every little accomplishment. The bigger issue is whether he has the time to pull together an organization and raise the money to be able to compete."

Initial receipts to the Friends of Fred Thompson committee were underwhelming and suggest that Republican patrons weren't as eager for Thompson to run as some thought. Thompson reported to the IRS that in June he raised $3.4 million from 9,167 donors, including more than 7,500 who gave via the Internet. Respectable, but the goal was $5 million.

"He's obviously doing pretty well in the polls for somebody who hasn't raised much money," Geer said. "I think he's very formidable."

Thompson's challenges

Thompson's extended pre-campaign period has held other negative consequences for him:

A pending complaint made by a liberal blogger to the Federal Election Commission about Thompson's committee, which has yet to file under the FEC. Lane Hudson argues that Thompson no longer is merely testing the waters and, in fact, is unlawfully campaigning. "He has been presenting himself as a candidate for President, he has been raising large sums of money beyond what would be required to explore a possible candidacy, and he has signed a long term lease on a headquarters for his campaign," Hudson wrote on his News for the Left blog.

Media scrutiny of staff turmoil and internal organizational difficulties.

Gossipy speculation about the influence and behind-the-scenes role of his 40-year-old wife, Jeri Kehn Thompson. Other media reports have focused on the once-divorced Thompson's assorted former girlfriends.

Two other potential challenges for Thompson: lymphoma and lobbying.

He disclosed earlier this year that he has non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, which is cancer, but that the disease is in remission and he has no symptoms. Giuliani and McCain also have had bouts with cancer, and the consensus is that the revelation probably won't impact Thompson's bid.

Possibly more damaging is his past career as a lobbyist, a potential vulnerability in a political climate hostile to the profession. Thompson's clients included a Tennessee association in the savings and loan industry, which he pushed to deregulate before the S&L crisis of the 1980s.

'Law & Order' limbo

As Thompson takes the political spotlight, his TV alter ego Arthur Branch will exit stage right.

Once Thompson formally announces his intention to seek the presidency, NBC won't schedule any more repeats of Law & Order episodes featuring Thompson's character, according to network spokeswoman Julie Rothman.

Some pundits have theorized that Thompson's delayed announcement may have had something to do with maximizing name exposure from the summer Law & Order reruns.